The Impact of COVID-19 on Insurgency and Rebel Governance: Lessons from India's Northeast

Abstract Emerging research has suggested that the COVID-19 pandemic generally favored rebel organizations—rather than states—in situations of intrastate conflict. This article challenges this perspective by analyzing pandemic's impact on three dimensions activity—armed activity, popular support and recruitment, governance. It does so using illustrative evidence from long-running insurgencies in Northeast India, characterized long-term weakness minimal, if any, territorial control. The finds during early, acute phase 2020, state-imposed lockdowns, rebels’ own restrictions, disruptions to supply chains constrained most activity. easing restrictions 2021 revealed complex multidimensional impacts different armed groups, which often hinged pre-existing positions such as group strength, strategy, relations with state, operational circumstances. These experiences low-level lacking control add important qualifiers notion rebels are inherently best placed capitalize stochastic shocks pandemics. Beyond case these findings make a number contributions analysis counterinsurgency